SpaceX’s S-1, filed May 20, 2026, devotes 47% of its narrative to AI while the AI segment generated only 6.7% of 2025 revenue and posted a $14 billion free cash flow loss.
Starlink produced 61% of 2025 revenue at 63% segment-adjusted EBITDA, approaching Microsoft’s 65% margin and exceeding every telecom and satellite competitor. The AI segment has 550 million monthly active users but only 6.3 million paid subscribers: a 1.1% conversion rate against Spotify’s 45%. The S-1 discloses no Grok subscription breakout, no xAI API revenue, and no utilization rate on 1.0 gigawatt of deployed compute. The segment occupying 47% is a financial black box.
Anthropic’s $1.25 billion per month contract through May 2029 for Colossus and Colossus II access confirms the hardware carries standalone commercial value independent of model performance. The same contract reveals that capacity was meaningfully underutilized before the agreement was signed.
Whether institutional investors are buying Starlink’s cash flows or SpaceX’s AI infrastructure at IPO will determine the clearing price.